Our football betting expert Dennis, aka Dennis Knows, is back with his analysis and betting insight ahead of a packed weekend of Premier League action.
Brentford vs Chelsea, Friday 8pm
Chelsea have shown genuine vulnerability to exactly the kind of physical, second ball and set piece football Brentford specialise in. There’s a softness to their defending that Hull City exposed recently, scoring from a corner after goalkeeper Emi Martinez failed to deal cleanly with the delivery. Brentford will relish the chance to exploit that same weakness.
Among the 17 ever present Premier League teams since the start of last season, Chelsea have conceded the second most goals from set pieces at a rate of 0.5 per game, and Brentford have troubled them via this exact route in previous meetings, averaging 0.73 expected goals from set pieces across their last three encounters. Chelsea look there for the taking here.
Score prediction: 2-1
Tottenham vs Aston Villa, Saturday 12:30pm
There’s a striking amount of evidence pointing toward a low scoring affair. Tottenham’s problems in front of goal remain well documented, having failed to score in four Premier League matches against a backdrop of just 0.95 expected goals per game. Roberto De Zerbi’s teams averaged 1.92 goals per game at both Brighton and Marseille, so averaging only 0.73 since taking the Spurs job points to a genuine mental block affecting the club right now.
Aston Villa have scored just once themselves in the league this season. Both sides have real attacking process issues, though for different reasons. Tottenham have possession and territory without enough penetration, while Villa are struggling to generate meaningful shot volume at all. Under 2.5 goals looks like strong value.
Score prediction: 1-1 | Best bet: Under 2.5 goals
Brighton vs Arsenal, Saturday 3pm
Fabian Hurzeler hasn’t beaten Mikel Arteta across five previous meetings, but his Brighton side have certainly made life uncomfortable for the champions in the past, winning four of the five expected goals battles in those encounters. That history suggests this could be a tricky away day for Arsenal despite their perfect start to the season.
Bukayo Saka looks back to his dangerous best on the ball, having drawn 13 fouls across his last three Premier League games, three of which resulted in a booking for the opponent. Olivier Boscagli, likely to be tasked with marking him, already has two cards in two games against Arsenal this season, adding extra intrigue to how that individual battle plays out.
Score prediction: 1-1
Everton vs Ipswich Town, Saturday 3pm
Ipswich full back Leif Davis continues to look like far more than a traditional defender, pushing extremely high up the pitch and becoming a genuine attacking outlet. His two goals and an assist across the opening four Premier League games underline just how involved he is in Ipswich’s attack, and including pre season, he’s scored four times in his last seven appearances, remarkable output from a player starting in defence.
Score prediction: 2-1 | Best bet: Leif Davis to have 1+ shots on target
Newcastle United vs Hull City, Saturday 3pm
There’s often value in opposing a team fresh off a heavy defeat, and Newcastle certainly took a battering at Leeds, falling 4-0 down before eventually losing 4-1. Head coach Matthias Jaissle admitted afterward that the result was difficult to digest and that his young side struggled to match Leeds physically.
Looking at teams that have conceded four or more goals in a Premier League match, excluding games against Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool, their record in the following fixture is poor, just one win from the last 15 such matches, alongside five draws and nine defeats. That makes backing Hull or the draw an interesting angle here.
Score prediction: 1-2
Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City, Saturday 5:30pm
Forest midfielder James McAtee looks a strong bet to pick up a card here. He’s made seven fouls across his last two games, collecting a yellow in both, in a league that’s the most physical and duel heavy in Europe. It looks like a classic case of the betting markets not yet catching up with a positional shift, with McAtee doing an excellent job replacing Elliot Anderson’s combative presence in the Forest midfield.
Score prediction: 2-0 | Best bet: James McAtee to be carded
Bournemouth vs Liverpool, Sunday 2pm
Storylines are always worth paying attention to in football, and Andoni Iraola’s return to Bournemouth with Liverpool has all the makings of an emotionally charged occasion. Iraola spent three seasons on the south coast, guiding Bournemouth to their highest ever Premier League finish before moving to Anfield this summer, and returns to his old club for the first time on Sunday.
History suggests these reunions can be awkward for the visiting manager. David Moyes lost at Everton with Manchester United, Graham Potter lost at Brighton with Chelsea, and Mauricio Pochettino drew at Southampton with Tottenham, among other similar examples. The home crowd and players both know the returning manager intimately, adding an extra edge to the occasion.
Score prediction: 2-1
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 2pm
Backing Leeds when the price is right tends to be a sound strategy, given how consistently organised, aggressive and dangerous from set pieces they’ve been. They’ve lost just once in their last 13 Premier League matches dating back to March, winning six and drawing six, the fewest defeats of any side in the division over that stretch, and followed it up with a 4-1 demolition of Newcastle.
Their first half numbers are especially striking. Leeds have conceded just two goals before half time across their last 19 matches, keeping 17 first half clean sheets in that run. Crystal Palace, by contrast, have already conceded 11 goals in their opening four league games, making Leeds to lead at both half time and full time an appealing angle.
Score prediction: 3-1
Manchester City vs Sunderland, Sunday 2pm
There’s one Premier League opponent still missing from Erling Haaland’s list of victims: Sunderland. He’s scored against 24 of the 25 teams he’s faced in the competition, with the Black Cats the sole exception, making this a potentially dangerous fixture for them given Haaland’s current form. He’s scored in each of his last three Premier League appearances and nine times across his last nine league matches, most recently netting the winner against Manchester United at Old Trafford.
Rather than backing Haaland to score outright, combining it with a City win and under 3.5 goals looks like better value. Sunderland can be a difficult side to break down, and City have generally been winning games efficiently rather than turning every victory into a rout.
Score prediction: 2-0
Fulham vs Manchester United, Sunday 4:30pm
Another poor result before the international break would be unwelcome for Michael Carrick, who already finds himself caught in a familiar cycle for Manchester United managers in recent seasons. United have won just one of their opening four league games and then squandered a 2-0 lead against Brighton midweek.
Fulham are likely to make this an open contest, which should suit United’s attacking players, but the more interesting angle is a goals based one. These two sides have had the joint most touches in the opposition box in the Premier League this season, with 139 each. Fulham’s Josh King stands out specifically, leading the league with 30 touches in the opposition box, plus two goals from 11 shots, five of which have been on target. Both teams to score, combined with King having a shot on target, looks like strong value.
Score prediction: 2-3
Dennis Knows’ Best Bets
- Tottenham vs Aston Villa: Under 2.5 goals
- James McAtee to be carded
- Leif Davis to have 1+ shots on target
Quick Facts: This Weekend’s Predictions
- Brentford vs Chelsea: 2-1
- Tottenham vs Aston Villa: 1-1
- Brighton vs Arsenal: 1-1
- Everton vs Ipswich: 2-1
- Newcastle vs Hull: 1-2
- Nottm Forest vs Coventry: 2-0
- Bournemouth vs Liverpool: 2-1
- Leeds vs Crystal Palace: 3-1
- Man City vs Sunderland: 2-0
- Fulham vs Man Utd: 2-3
