A full round of predictions and betting angles across this weekend’s Premier League action, with plenty of intriguing storylines including Liverpool’s ongoing struggles, Manchester City’s clash with Coventry, and a big test for Arsenal against Chelsea.
Ipswich vs Liverpool, Friday 8pm
Liverpool are on course to become the first club in history to field three players worth more than £100 million at the same time, yet that hasn’t stopped them drifting into a run of six games without a win across two seasons. This is a talented but crowded squad that’s still looking uncomfortable within Andoni Iraola’s system. Nottingham Forest created 2.3 expected goals at Anfield last weekend, the third highest total any team has managed in a Premier League away fixture there over the last 77 home matches, making Liverpool uneasy favourites heading into this one.
A betting angle worth considering is Ipswich full-back Leif Davis, who effectively plays as an auxiliary left winger in his side’s system. He scored against Manchester United to add to two pre-season goals, and has racked up 21 assists across the last two Championship seasons thanks to a genuinely dangerous left foot.
Score prediction: 2-2 | Best bet: Leif Davis to score or assist
Newcastle vs Bournemouth, Saturday 12:30pm
Two managers who favour fast, direct football should make for an entertaining contest. Anthony Elanga looks transformed under Matthias Jaissle’s approach, with his confidence clearly high following goals against Liverpool and Tottenham. He isn’t always the most reliable finisher, but is capable of scoring in streaks when in this kind of form.
Score prediction: 2-2
Brentford vs Sunderland, Saturday 3pm
Brentford have arguably been the Premier League’s most impressive side through two matches, with their performance in beating Tottenham and drawing at Leeds suggesting genuine progress under Keith Andrews. They produced the most shots and box touches of any away side at Elland Road in the opening 60 minutes of a match since last season began.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have struggled badly on the road, posting an expected goals difference worse than either of last season’s relegated sides in away matches since the start of last season. With Brentford having led at half-time in all three of their matches so far this season, backing them to be ahead at both the break and full-time looks like solid value.
Score prediction: 3-0 | Best bet: Brentford winning at half-time and full-time
Brighton vs Leeds, Saturday 3pm
Brighton could be without several key players for this one, which has weakened their standing in the betting markets. Leeds, since switching to a back three in December, have been notably solid defensively away from home and tend to take a conservative approach in first halves, with five of their last six away games goalless at the interval.
Score prediction: 1-1
Fulham vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm
Both managers head into this one under some pressure to get their seasons moving. Palace have lost some of the defensive solidity that defined their success under Oliver Glasner, while their attacking improvements haven’t yet clicked consistently. Fulham fans, meanwhile, remain frustrated following a timid display at Sunderland. A cagier, lower-scoring draw looks the likely outcome.
Score prediction: 1-1
Manchester City vs Coventry, Saturday 3pm
City have historically dealt with newly-promoted opposition efficiently, and there’s little reason to expect anything different here. Rayan Cherki, averaging 0.45 assists per 90 minutes since the start of last season (a better ratio than Bruno Fernandes), stands out as a smart way to back City’s expected dominance without simply going for the outright scoreline.
Score prediction: 3-0
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham, Saturday 3pm
Spurs remain difficult to trust despite a big summer of spending, showing more competitiveness in their recent defeat to Newcastle but still looking easy to score against. Forest, by contrast, have shown clearer signs of adapting to Oliver Glasner’s principles, playing with real organisation without the ball while pushing numbers forward aggressively when they attack.
Morgan Gibbs-White’s output looks set to grow under this system, having already opened his account at Anfield. He’s registered a shot on target in each of his last four starts against Tottenham, averaging 1.05 per game against them since last season.
Score prediction: 2-1
Hull vs Aston Villa, Saturday 5:30pm
Hull have won their opening two games without conceding, despite losing the underlying expected goals battle in both matches, a pattern that suggests some regression could be coming. Unai Emery, meanwhile, has an excellent record in September, losing just once in 18 Premier League matches during the month. He’s also never lost to a newly-promoted side with Villa, winning 15 of 21 such meetings and scoring 23 goals across their last nine away games against promoted opposition.
Score prediction: 0-2 | Best bet: Aston Villa to win
Everton vs Manchester United, Sunday 2pm
Everton endured a difficult end to the transfer window, but their actual starting XI may be stronger than the market currently assumes. A home game against United could suit David Moyes’ pragmatic, siege-mentality approach, with supporter frustration this summer directed squarely at the club’s hierarchy rather than the manager or players. Ipswich competed well against United until a controversial goal opened the game up, and Everton look a very different, more difficult opponent by comparison.
Score prediction: 1-1
Arsenal vs Chelsea, Sunday 4:30pm
Arsenal look capable of controlling this game in typical fashion, defending with discipline and taking their chances when they arrive, while backing themselves to contain a Chelsea front three that’s been exciting but still unproven over a longer sample, having kept just one clean sheet in their last 18 Premier League matches. Arsenal, by contrast, have kept ten clean sheets in that same period, and 11 in their last 14 home matches, conceding just three goals across their last 13 home games in all competitions.
Arsenal to win combined with under 3.5 goals has landed in 10 of their last 14 home matches, a trend well worth following again here.
Score prediction: 2-0
Quick Facts: This Weekend’s Predictions
- Ipswich vs Liverpool: 2-2
- Newcastle vs Bournemouth: 2-2
- Brentford vs Sunderland: 3-0
- Brighton vs Leeds: 1-1
- Fulham vs Crystal Palace: 1-1
- Man City vs Coventry: 3-0
- Nottm Forest vs Tottenham: 2-1
- Hull vs Aston Villa: 0-2
- Everton vs Man Utd: 1-1
- Arsenal vs Chelsea: 2-0
