Our Turkey vs Italy prediction: a tight, low scoring game in Bursa tonight, with under 2.5 goals our main pick. Both teams lost their Nations League openers without scoring, both are missing key midfielders, and Italy have a strong record in this fixture. Neither side can afford a second defeat in League A Group 1.
Turkey were beaten 1-0 at home by France last week after playing much of the game with ten men, while Italy lost 2-0 on home soil to Belgium. That leaves both nations at the bottom of the group, and the loser tonight will already be under real pressure in the race to avoid relegation to League B.
Turkey vs Italy: Key Match Facts
- Competition: UEFA Nations League, League A, Group 1 (matchday 2)
- Date: Monday, 28 September 2026
- Kick-off: 9:45pm EAT
- Venue: Bursa, Turkey
- Turkey’s last game: Lost 1-0 to France
- Italy’s last game: Lost 2-0 to Belgium
- Coaches: Vincenzo Montella (Turkey), Roberto Mancini (Italy)
Turkey Form: Brave Against France, but Blunt
Turkey showed plenty of fight against France. Even after goalkeeper Uğurcan Çakır was sent off, they kept the world class visitors to a single goal. The problem is at the other end. For all their effort, Montella’s side did not score, and that is a worry for a squad with this much attacking talent heading into another tough group game.
There is an interesting subplot on the touchline too. Montella is an Italian who made his name as a striker in Serie A, so facing his home country is a big night for him personally.
Turkey Team News
Turkey are without several important players. Çakır is suspended after his red card, so Altay Bayındır is expected to start in goal. Captain Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Kenan Yıldız and Orkun Kökcü are all missing, which strips out a lot of creativity and control from midfield. Arda Güler becomes even more important as the main source of ideas, with Barış Alper Yılmaz expected to lead the attack.
Italy Form: Mancini’s Return Starts Badly
Mancini is back in charge of Italy, but the Nations League campaign has started badly. Belgium won 2-0 on Italian soil, a result that raised immediate questions about where this squad is heading and about Italy’s lack of a reliable goalscorer, a familiar problem in recent years.
Italy Team News
Italy also have a long absence list. Federico Dimarco and Bryan Cristante are both out injured, which weakens the left side of defence and the depth in midfield. Nicolò Barella and Sandro Tonali are expected to anchor the midfield, with Gianluigi Donnarumma in goal.
Head to Head: Italy Usually Come Out on Top
Italy have had the better of this fixture in recent years. The most famous meeting came in the opening game of Euro 2020, when Italy won 3-0 in Rome on their way to lifting the trophy. The sides also drew 0-0 in a friendly in Bologna before Euro 2024. Turkey have been competitive in these games, but they have struggled to turn that into wins against the Azzurri.
Turkey vs Italy Prediction and Betting Tips
This has the feel of a cagey game between two sides who are both desperate not to lose. Turkey have home advantage in Bursa and a lively crowd behind them, but they failed to score last time out and they are without their captain and two key creators. Italy have their own injury problems and looked short of ideas against Belgium.
When two teams who failed to score last time out meet with depleted midfields, goals can be hard to come by. We expect a close contest decided by small margins, and a draw would not be a surprise.
- Main pick: Under 2.5 goals
- Alternative: Draw
- Correct score idea: Turkey 1-1 Italy
Also on tonight is the big one in Brussels, so read our football predictions hub for the Belgium vs France preview and more picks. For the weekend’s other international drama, catch up on our England 2-3 Spain match report and our European football roundup. Full group tables are on the official UEFA Nations League site.
FAQ: Turkey vs Italy
What time is Turkey vs Italy in Kenya?
Turkey vs Italy kicks off at 9:45pm East Africa Time on Monday, 28 September 2026, in Bursa.
Who is Italy’s coach for the Nations League?
Roberto Mancini is back in charge of Italy. Turkey are coached by his fellow Italian, Vincenzo Montella.
Is Hakan Çalhanoğlu playing against Italy?
No. Çalhanoğlu is missing for Turkey, along with Kenan Yıldız, Orkun Kökcü and the suspended goalkeeper Uğurcan Çakır.
What is the best bet for Turkey vs Italy?
Our main pick is under 2.5 goals, with the draw as an alternative. No result is guaranteed, so bet only what you can afford to lose.
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