Football Predictions and Betting Tips

How our predictions work

For every fixture we measure how many goals each team scores and concedes compared with the league average, at home and away, giving recent matches more weight than older ones. Those strengths give expected goals for both sides, and a Poisson model turns expected goals into the chance of every possible scoreline. From that we calculate the home win, draw and away win probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and the most likely score.

Confidence shows how clear the numbers are. When no single result is likely, we give a double chance tip instead. Early in the season, when there is little data, confidence is capped.