With a month to go until the 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is unveiled in London, the race remains wide open. Will Harry Kane become the first Englishman to lift the trophy since 2001, or will teenage sensation Lamine Yamal become the youngest winner in the award’s history? Here is how every major contender stacks up.
Harry Kane: Goals, goals and more goals
Harry Kane’s case is built on relentless, record-breaking output. He became the fastest player in Bundesliga history to reach 100 goals earlier this month, doing so in just 98 appearances, a remarkable 31 games quicker than the previous record set by Dieter Muller nearly half a century ago.
That milestone capped off the most prolific individual season of his career. Across 2025/26 Kane scored 36 goals in 31 Bundesliga appearances, added 14 more in 13 Champions League matches, and contributed a further 12 for England, including six at the World Cup. In total, he netted an astonishing 73 goals in just 65 games.
Now in his thirties, Kane appears to have found another gear, helped by maintaining his fitness more effectively than at any previous major tournament, having previously arrived at international competitions already running on empty. While rivals may point to bigger team honours, few would argue any player on the planet has been in better individual form, and the timing could not be sweeter with the ceremony taking place on home soil in London.
Lamine Yamal: The teenage showman
The case for Barcelona’s 18-year-old sensation writes itself, though Yamal has not been shy about making it himself either, recently arguing the award should reward a genuinely “unique” talent rather than simply goal output. Whether or not that was aimed at Kane, history is somewhat on his side, with five of the last seven World Cup-year winners coming from squads that reached the final.
Even if goals are not his primary focus, Yamal posted career-best numbers of 25 for club and country in 2025/26, including three in the Champions League knockout stages, becoming the youngest player ever to reach 40 career goals for Barcelona. Only one of those came at the World Cup, but his tournament was still packed with the flair, energy and trademark stepovers that have defined his rapid rise. Should he win, Yamal would become the youngest Ballon d’Or recipient ever, a fact that should count in his favour given he spent almost the entire season as an 18-year-old.
Kylian Mbappe: Owed his moment
Few active players have a stronger overall body of work without the individual recognition to match. Kylian Mbappe has appeared in two World Cup finals, winning one and scoring a hat-trick in the other, yet has still never been crowned the world’s best player.
This calendar year alone, the Frenchman has scored 31 goals, including 10 during a record-breaking World Cup campaign that saw him become the tournament’s all-time leading scorer. France’s semi-final exit and subsequent third-place playoff defeat to England may count against him, but Mbappe remains arguably the most prominent player never to have won the award. Asked about his chances, he said he had made a great deal of history this summer in the sport’s biggest competition and felt it could finally be his year.
Rodri: The World Cup’s best player
Rodri’s chances looked slim after an injury-hit domestic campaign limited him to just 22 Premier League and Champions League starts for Manchester City. But international football changed everything. As captain of the World Cup-winning Spain side and recipient of the tournament’s best player award, his case demands serious attention.
That kind of individual honour at a World Cup has proven decisive before, helping Luka Modric claim the Ballon d’Or in 2018. While not the outright favourite, Rodri has every right to believe he could add a second Ballon d’Or to the one he won in 2024.
Ousmane Dembele: The reigning champion staying consistent
Following up a Ballon d’Or win is never easy, but Ousmane Dembele has built a strong case to retain his crown. The France forward scored 20 times for Paris Saint-Germain and was instrumental as the club retained the Champions League, including finding the net in the final against Arsenal.
He carried that form into the World Cup, contributing six goals and two assists as France reached the semi-finals. Successive Ballon d’Or wins are rare, but between another European title and his most productive major tournament yet, Dembele has given voters plenty of reasons to keep faith with the reigning champion.
Bruno Fernandes: The assist record breaker
Only two Premier League players have won the Ballon d’Or in the last 20 years: Rodri in 2024 and Cristiano Ronaldo in 2008, when he was the focal point of Manchester United’s attack. That description could just as easily apply to Bruno Fernandes last season.
United’s lack of European football or silverware works against his case, but it did not stop him sweeping the individual honours in English football. His record-breaking 21 assists arguably carry even more weight given they came for a side that had finished 15th the previous season, rather than a title-winning team. Had Portugal lifted the World Cup, his case would rank among the very strongest, but even without it, few individual campaigns matched his influence.
Erling Haaland: Closer to the front than people think
There may be more deserving candidates than Erling Haaland this year, but he arguably deserves to be closer to the front of the conversation than most assume. At just 26, he has already developed into a genuinely talismanic figure, and at his current scoring rate, he is on course to surpass both Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo to reach 1,000 career goals, a truly remarkable achievement.
Haaland starred for Norway over the summer, has been transformative for the Premier League since arriving in 2022, and continues to be a revolutionary presence for Manchester City, with 169 goals in 205 appearances representing an extraordinary scoring rate. He may not win this year, but a future Ballon d’Or increasingly looks like a matter of when, not if.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: The Champions League’s standout performer
Winning the Ballon d’Or in a World Cup year without your country even qualifying is close to unheard of, but Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has an outside case. He was, by some distance, the best player in last season’s Champions League, topping the knockout stage scoring charts while also registering the most assists from open play in the competition.
Paris Saint-Germain were already a strong side featuring Bradley Barcola on the left wing, but Kvaratskhelia elevated them further, adding relentless energy to their pressing game alongside genuine quality on the ball, making him a serious dark horse for the award.
Quick Facts
- The 2026 Ballon d’Or winner will be announced in London on October 26.
- Harry Kane scored 73 goals in 65 appearances across the 2025/26 season, including a record-breaking run to 100 Bundesliga goals.
- Lamine Yamal would become the youngest ever Ballon d’Or winner at 18 if he claims the award.
- Kylian Mbappe became the World Cup’s all-time top scorer after netting 10 goals at the tournament.
- Rodri won the World Cup’s best player award as Spain’s winning captain.
- Ousmane Dembele is aiming to become back-to-back Ballon d’Or winner after his 2025 triumph.
Football fans across Kenya and East Africa can follow all the buildup to the Ballon d’Or ceremony, along with continuing club season coverage, live on DStv SuperSport.
