Italy vs Turkey prediction in short: Italy host Turkiye at the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara in Bologna tonight, Monday 5 October 2026, with kick-off at 9:45pm EAT. Roberto Mancini’s side beat the Turks 4-1 in Bursa only a week ago, and the visitors arrive without the suspended Arda Guler and Baris Alper Yilmaz. We expect another Italy win.
This is a reverse fixture with very different moods in each camp. Italy are unbeaten in their last two Nations League games and still chasing a quarter-final place, while Turkiye have lost all three matches in League A Group 1 and are fighting to avoid relegation to League B.
Italy vs Turkey: Key Match Facts
- Competition: UEFA Nations League, League A Group 1, Matchday 4
- Date: Monday 5 October 2026
- Kick-off: 9:45pm EAT
- Venue: Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna
- Managers: Roberto Mancini (Italy), Vincenzo Montella (Turkiye)
- Italy form (Nations League): L 0-2 v Belgium, W 4-1 v Turkiye, D 1-1 v France
- Turkiye form (Nations League): L 0-1 v France, L 1-4 v Italy, L 0-3 v Belgium
- Group position: Italy third on 4 points, Turkiye bottom on 0 points
Italy vs Turkey Team News
Italy
Mancini has picked a young squad for this window and it has started to click. The Azzurri bounced back from their opening defeat in Belgium with a 4-1 win in Bursa, a game in which Michael Kayode scored on his debut, and then earned a creditable 1-1 draw against France in Paris on Friday, with Alessandro Bastoni finding the net.
No fresh suspensions have been reported for Italy. Gianluigi Donnarumma should start in goal, with Bastoni and Giorgio Scalvini expected to continue at centre-back. Moise Kean is likely to lead the attack, with Pio Esposito also pushing for a start. Sandro Tonali and Davide Frattesi are expected in midfield.
Turkiye
Vincenzo Montella has serious problems. Real Madrid playmaker Arda Guler and winger Baris Alper Yilmaz are both suspended after bookings in Friday’s 3-0 defeat in Belgium. That strips away two of Turkiye’s main sources of creativity and goals.
The injury list is also long. Captain Hakan Calhanoglu and forward Kenan Yildiz were both reported to be injured before the first meeting with Italy, and neither is expected to feature. Deniz Gul is likely to lead the line, with Kerem Akturkoglu supporting him.
Possible line-ups
Italy: Donnarumma; Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Barella, Tonali, Frattesi; Esposito, Kean, Esposito.
Turkiye: Cakir; Celik, Demiral, Kabak, Kadioglu; Yuksek, Ozcan; Akgun, Akturkoglu, Elmali; Gul.
These are expected line-ups only. Confirmed teams are released about an hour before kick-off.
Form Guide and Head to Head
Italy’s last week has been encouraging. After losing 2-0 to Belgium on the opening night, they hit Turkiye for four in Bursa and then held the group leaders France in Paris. Read our reports on Turkey 1-4 Italy: Kayode scores on debut as Azzurri bounce back and France 1-1 Italy: Bastoni spoils Zidane’s home debut.
Turkiye are in a rut. They have scored once in three games and conceded eight, and pressure is building on Montella. Friday’s 3-0 loss in Belgium was their heaviest of the campaign so far.
The head-to-head picture is clear. Italy have dominated this fixture over the years, winning 3-0 in the opening game of Euro 2020 and 4-1 in Bursa just eight days ago.
What Is at Stake
France lead League A Group 1 on 7 points, Belgium have 6 and Italy 4. With France and Belgium meeting in Paris at the same time, an Italy win would keep them right in the race for a top-two finish and a quarter-final place in March 2027. For Turkiye, another defeat would leave them pointless after four games and staring at the bottom spot, which brings relegation to League B.
Italy vs Turkey Prediction and Betting Tips
Everything points towards the home side. Italy are in better form, have home advantage, and beat this same opponent by three goals last week. Turkiye are without their two most dangerous attackers in Guler and Yilmaz, as well as Calhanoglu and Yildiz, which leaves them short of quality in the final third.
The one note of caution is that Italy have played three games in eight days, and Mancini may rotate. Even so, the gap in quality and confidence is big enough that we back the Azzurri to win, and to do it without conceding many.
Our prediction: Italy 2-0 Turkiye.
- Main pick: Italy to win
- Alternative: Italy to win to nil
- Value angle: Moise Kean to score anytime
Compare the latest odds on JetBet before kick-off and find more match tips on our predictions page. For the official group table, visit the UEFA Nations League website.
FAQs
What time is Italy vs Turkey in Kenya?
Italy vs Turkiye kicks off at 9:45pm East Africa Time on Monday 5 October 2026 in Bologna.
Is Arda Guler playing against Italy?
No. Arda Guler is suspended after a booking in Turkiye’s 3-0 defeat to Belgium, and Baris Alper Yilmaz is banned too.
What was the score when Italy last played Turkey?
Italy won 4-1 in Bursa on 28 September 2026, with Michael Kayode scoring on his debut.
Can Turkey be relegated from Nations League A?
Yes. The team that finishes bottom of the group drops to League B, and Turkiye are currently last with no points after three games.
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