France vs Italy prediction in one line: France are favourites to beat Italy at the Stade de France tonight, Friday 2 October, with kick-off at 21:45 EAT. Zinedine Zidane’s side have won both Nations League games without conceding, but Kylian Mbappe is missing and Italy arrive full of confidence after scoring four in Turkey.
This is Zidane’s first home match as France coach and one of the biggest nights of the international break. Below we cover the team news, form, head to head record and our betting pick for this League A clash.
France vs Italy: Key Match Facts
- Competition: UEFA Nations League, League A, Matchday 3
- Date: Friday 2 October 2026
- Kick-off: 21:45 EAT
- Venue: Stade de France, Saint-Denis
- France form (Nations League): W W (1-0 vs Turkey away, 1-0 vs Belgium away)
- Italy form (Nations League): L W (0-2 vs Belgium at home, 4-1 vs Turkey away)
- Group position: France top on 6 points, Italy on 3 points
France vs Italy Prediction: The Story So Far
Zidane could hardly have asked for a better start. France won 1-0 in Turkey and then edged Belgium 1-0 in Brussels thanks to a late Michael Olise winner, which you can read about in our Belgium 0-1 France match report. Two away wins, two clean sheets and six points is a strong foundation.
What France have not done yet is score freely. Two goals in two games tells you this team is built on control and defensive discipline rather than fireworks. That matters for anyone looking at goals markets tonight.
Italy’s campaign under Roberto Mancini started badly with a 2-0 home defeat to Belgium, but they responded in style. Three first half goals helped them to a 4-1 win in Turkey, and young defender Michael Kayode scored on his debut. Our Turkey 1-4 Italy report has the full story of that bounce back.
France Team News
The big absence is Kylian Mbappe, who is out with a knee injury picked up before this match. Reports in France say serious ligament damage has been ruled out, but he will play no part tonight.
France are also without centre backs William Saliba and Ibrahima Konate through injury. Mike Maignan is expected to keep his place in goal and Maxence Lacroix is likely to stay in the back line, with Dayot Upamecano expected to return alongside him.
Without Mbappe, France have no natural centre forward in the squad. Ousmane Dembele is expected to lead the line, with Olise, Rayan Cherki and Desire Doue offering pace and creativity around him.
France possible XI
Maignan; Kounde, Upamecano, Lacroix, Truffert; Kone, Rabiot; Olise, Cherki, Doue; Dembele
Italy Team News
Italy lost Giacomo Raspadori to injury after the win in Turkey, so he will miss this trip. Mancini is expected to bring experienced defenders back in, with Riccardo Calafiori a likely starter, and Nicolo Barella could return in midfield.
The Esposito brothers, Pio and Sebastiano, started together against Turkey and there is a good chance at least one of them keeps his place. Gianluigi Donnarumma is expected in goal.
Italy possible XI
Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Barella, Tonali, Frattesi; S. Esposito, P. Esposito, Kean
Head to Head Record
Italy still lead the all time series between these two old rivals, but France have had the upper hand recently, winning four of the last five meetings. The last two games came in the 2024 Nations League and both finished 3-1 to the away side: Italy won in Paris in September 2024, before France returned the favour in Milan that November.
That Paris result is a useful reminder that Italy are capable of winning at the Stade de France, even when France start as favourites.
Key Players to Watch
Michael Olise (France)
Olise has become France’s match winner in the early weeks of the Zidane era. With Mbappe absent, more of the creative load falls on him, and his left foot from the right flank is France’s most reliable source of chances.
Sandro Tonali (Italy)
Italy will need to keep the ball under pressure in a hostile stadium, and Tonali is the player most likely to make that happen. If he can break France’s midfield press, Italy’s quick forwards will get chances.
France vs Italy Betting Odds
Bookmakers make France clear favourites at home, with Italy priced as the outsiders and the draw sitting in between. The market expects a tight game, with a narrow France win the most popular correct score. Always check the latest prices on JetBet before kick-off, as team news can move the odds.
Prediction: France 2-1 Italy
France have home advantage, a settled defence and plenty of attacking talent even without Mbappe. Their two clean sheets came away from home, and the Stade de France crowd on Zidane’s home debut should lift them further.
Italy, though, have shown they can score in bunches, and France’s lack of a true number nine could make this closer than the odds suggest. We expect France to edge it, but we would not be surprised to see Italy score.
- Main pick: France to win
- Alternative: France to win and under 3.5 goals
- Correct score: France 2-1 Italy
Looking for more tips? See all our latest football predictions, and catch up on how we called France’s last outing in our Belgium vs France prediction. Official group tables are on the UEFA Nations League website.
France vs Italy FAQs
What time is France vs Italy in Kenya?
France vs Italy kicks off at 21:45 EAT on Friday 2 October 2026 at the Stade de France in Saint-Denis.
Is Mbappe playing for France against Italy?
No. Kylian Mbappe is out with a knee injury, so Ousmane Dembele is expected to play through the middle for France.
Who has won more games between France and Italy?
Italy lead the all time head to head, but France have won four of the last five meetings, including a 3-1 win in Milan in November 2024.
What is the best bet for France vs Italy?
Our pick is a France win, with France 2-1 Italy as the correct score. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
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